According to Jacobs Media President Fred Jacobs, radio has a “youth problem.”
While Jacobs is likely not alone in making this proclamation, he’s been quite vociferous in exposing the industry’s weaknesses — despite its continued reach story that can’t quite overcome the digital media juggernaut and marketer prejudice.
On Wednesday (12/30), he took another close look at the “Kids in America,” to reference a big hot hit from this week in 1981. It appears the radio industry is too focused on music from 1981 and the listeners who remember them as hot hits, rather than as classic tracks to enjoy alongside today’s “best music.”
In a blog post, Jacobs notes that “like so many other industries, there are questions revolving around the shape radio will be in when a [COVID-19] vaccine is finally developed, tested, and distributed.”
He discusses changes brought forth by the pandemic, now in its ninth month, and how they are likely permanent — working from home, and its impact on commercial real estate; e-commerce, and its impact on advertising clients.
“But what will become of radio?” he asks. “In what condition will COVID leave the industry — both in terms of listening levels, digital usage, and of course, appeal among advertisers, locally and nationally?”
His early assessment: “We have years of trending in front of us, so it will be fascinating to see how the pandemic will alter media habits. Of course, no one knows whether all the ways in which media usage patterns are morphing will be permanent.”
Yet, Jacobs believes there is one certainty. “[It] has nothing to do with pandemics, vaccines, or music tastes. If the radio broadcasting industry doesn’t start researching and programming to younger generations, it will most certainly be out of business.”
If the radio broadcasting industry doesn’t start researching and programming to younger generations, it will most certainly be out of business. — Fred Jacobs
NO ‘GLOOM & DOOM’
Jacobs cautions that his words come from an individual “always looking to find a great story about radio’s resilience, relevance, and continued role in the media landscape.’
But, he points to demographic trends, and how they could imperil radio if it doesn’t engage in a thoughtful and meaningful response.
The trends Jacobs has reviewed extensively were released June 30 by The Brookings Institution. That said, it is no different than what the Pew Research Center has been saying for years in its own reviews of Census data: America is getting younger, and browner.
Now, more than half of Americans are millennials or younger.
The data show that the combined millennial, Gen Z, and younger generations numbered 166 million as of July 2019, or 50.7% of the nation’s population—larger than 162 million Americans associated with the combined Gen X, baby boomer, and older cohorts, Brookings Senior Fellow William H. Frey, who works in its Metropolitan Policy Program, notes.
To illustrate the youth population surge, Brookings put a chart together.
“Combining Gen Xers, Boomers and older groups now account for 4 million fewer people than these younger cohorts,” Jacobs notes.
Census estimates show the oldest Millennials are now 39 years of age.
As Jacobs points out, this generation makes up roughly half of the 25-54 year-old “sweet spot” the radio industry “has been relentlessly chasing for decades.”
That leaves roughly 30% of the population under the age of 24.
Is the radio industry fully engaging with this potential audience, and future growth engine?
As Jacobs see it, “radio refuses to seriously acknowledge” this audience segment is even there.
He opines, “A look at any radio market – from Omaha to Oklahoma City to Orlando – reveals the vast majority of radio stations are geared to appeal to that familiar, sales-friendly 30 year age span, while typically only a handful are actually targeted to younger consumers. Yet, the Census and all objective demographers would agree that broadcast radio’s approach falls somewhere between myopic and suicidal.”
The opposing view is that older radio listeners are predispositioned to tune to a radio station, as they grew up with the medium. And, older listeners largely enjoy higher disposable incomes, compared to 30-year-olds saddled with debt tied to higher education tuition loans, housing costs, and perhaps dollars tied to starting a family.
Still, radio, in Jacobs’ view, is stuck in the 1980s.
“The long-held optimistic radio theory promised that once young people got out of school, joined the workforce, and started commuting to and from work, they’d discover the appeal of broadcast radio – at least an FM station or two,” he says. “But that theory was dependent on a deluge of commuters and car radio dashboards resembling those ACDelco radio systems from the ’70s and ’80s that were limited to AM, FM, a cassette deck or CD player, and a half dozen or so preset buttons — and a workforce driving to and from work without fail.”
With more people working from home, many permanently, and in-vehicle audio entertainment systems now making Sirius XM Satellite Radio and Spotify easy to find, “Young consumers who’ve been attached to Spotify for their music (and their podcasts) aren’t likely to simply discover [WHTZ] Z100, KROQ, or Rush Limbaugh when they land that first job,” Jacobs believes.
BEYOND ‘THE UNITED COLORS OF BENETTON’
Compounding matters for radio and its “youth problem” is the ceaseless population growth of non-Caucasian children, teens and young adults.
Then, there is the surge in Latino, Asian-American (comprised of those of Chinese, Vietnamese, Laotian, Cambodian, Thai, Japanese, Korean and Malaysian heritage) and African American populations.
For Jacobs, “The biggest change on the horizon will be the sweeping impact of demography – and not the next pandemic. It will have a sweeping impact on every corner of radio as we know it today, including commercial music, talk, and sports formats, as well as public and Christian music radio.”
The biggest change on the horizon will be the sweeping impact of demography – and not the next pandemic. It will have a sweeping impact on every corner of radio as we know it today, including commercial music, talk, and sports formats, as well as public and Christian music radio. — Fred Jacobs
Jacobs continues, “Radio may be an art form, but the science in this case is indisputable. How will broadcasters survive in a world where upwards of 60% of the population have little to nothing to do with the medium? How will today’s array of formats attract the millions of young people who are already finding their entertainment and information elsewhere?”
In his view, it has to start “with a serious dose of proactivity – a willingness to retrench, research, redesign, and reimagine the medium to better fit American tastes and sensibilities. Perhaps it starts with an industry task force at the highest levels – the NAB, RAB, and the medium’s largest companies and organizations. And let’s make sure it’s not made up of ‘OK Boomer’ types, but instead is populated (or at least consulted) by the best and brightest Gen Zs and Millennials working in the medium today. It would also be smart if they were representative of the gender/ethnicity mix broadcast radio will need to attract in order to stay relevant — and profitable.”
While radio is far from “a dire, tragic ending” for some broadcasters, Jacobs concludes that “a continued fixation with ‘doing it the way we’ve always done it’ is a sure-fire non-strategy virtually certain to leave broadcasters wishing they had taken action while they still could. There’s no vaccine or miracle cure for this. It’s not under control. And It won’t just go away. How we address this wave of inevitable change in the next five years will tell the tale. It’s on us. Whoa.”
